0203. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence

Issues in Reasoning

 

Though the research in reasoning has produced a lot of results for AI, there are still many remaining issues.

These issues show the limitation of the traditional "mathematical logic" when applied outside mathematics.

 

1. Uncertainties

Traditional logics (such as first-order predicate calculus) are certain in several aspects, whereas the actual human reasoning is uncertain.

meaning of term:

truth of statement: process of inference:

 

2. Non-deductive inference

All the inference rules of traditional logic are deduction rules, where the truth of the premises guarantee the truth of the conclusion. In a sense, in deduction the information in a conclusion is already in the premises, and the inference rules just reveal what is previously implicit.
For example, from "Robins are birds" and "Birds have feather", it is valid to derive "Robins have feather".

The problem is, in human reasoning, there are other inference patterns (or rules), where the conclusions contain information not available in the premises.

Induction produces generalizations from special cases.
Example: from "Robins are birds" and "Robins have feather" to derive "Birds have feather".

Abduction produces explanations for given cases.
Example: from "Birds have feather" and "Robins have feather" to derive "Robins are birds".

Analogy produces similarity-based judgments.
Example: from "Swallows are similar to robins" and "Robins have feather" to derive "Swallows have feather".

The above non-deductive rules do not guarantee the truth of the conclusion even when the truth of the premises can be supposed. Therefore, they are not valid rules in traditional logic. On the other hand, it is easy to see that these kinds of inference often happen in everyday thinking, and, especially, they play important roles in learning and creative thinking.  If they are not valid according to traditional theories, then in what sense they are better than arbitrary guesses?

 

3. Various paradoxes

Traditional logic, when used outside mathematics, generate conclusions that are different from what people usually do.

Sorites paradox: No one grain of wheat can be identified as making the difference between being a heap and not being a heap. Given then that one grain of wheat does not make a heap, it would seem to follow that two do not, thus three do not, and so on. In the end it would appear that no amount of wheat can make a heap.

Implication paradox: Traditional logic uses "P → Q" to represent "If P, then Q". By definition, the implication proposition is true if P is false or if Q is true, but "If 1+1 = 3, then the Moon is made of cheese" and "If life exists on Mars, then robins have feather" don't sound right.

Confirmation paradox: In traditional logic, "Ravens are black" and "Non-black things are not Ravens" are equivalent, that is, they have the same truth value. If we want to extend truth value beyond merely true and false, and allow the system to learn the truth value of a statement gradually according to available evidence, then it is natural to take "black ravens" as positive evidence for "Ravens are black". For similar reasons, "non-black non-ravens" should be used as "Non-black things are not Ravens". But since the two statements are equivalent, "non-black non-ravens" (such as white sacks and red flowers) are also positive evidence for "Ravens are black".

Wason's selection task: A psychological experiment shows that human judgment is systematically different from the conclusion produced by traditional logic. Suppose that I show you four cards, showing A, B, 4, and 7, respectively. Suppose in addition that I give you the following rule to test: "If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side." Which card or cards should you turn over in order to decide the truth value of the rule? On this task, few people do what first-order predicate logic tells us to do.