0203. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
Issues in Reasoning
Though the research in reasoning has produced a lot of results for AI, there are
still many remaining issues.
These issues show the limitation of the traditional "mathematical logic" when applied
outside mathematics.
1. Uncertainties
Traditional logics (such as first-order predicate calculus) are certain in several
aspects, whereas the actual human reasoning is uncertain.
meaning of term:
- The meaning of an atomic term in traditional logic is determined according to an
interpretation, therefore it does not change as the system is running.
On the contrary, the meaning of a term in human mind often changes according
to experience and context.
Example: What is "game"?
- When a compound term is formed in traditional logic, its meaning
is completely determined by its definition, which reduces its meaning into
the meaning of its components and the operator/connector that joins the
components. On the contrary, the meaning of a term in human mind often cannot
be fully reduced to that of its components, though is still related to them.
Example: Is a "blackboard" exactly a black board?
truth of statement:
-
In traditional logic, a statement is either true or false, but people often
take truth value as a matter of degree.
Example: Is "A bird can fly" true or false?
-
In traditional logic, the truth value of a statement does not change over
time. However, people often revise their beliefs after getting new information.
Example: After learning that Tweety is a penguin, you may change some of your
beliefs formed when you only know that it is a bird.
-
In traditional logic, all useful inference must start with a consistent
premise set, because a contradiction can lead to the "proof" of any arbitrary
conclusion. On the contrary, the existence of a contradiction in human mind
will not make the person to believe an arbitrary statement.
Example: Have you ever had a (explicit or implicit) contradiction in your mind?
Do you believe 1 + 1 = 3 at that time?
process of inference:
-
In traditional reasoning systems, inference processes follow (deterministic)
algorithms, therefore are predictable, that is, after each step, what will
happen next is predetermined. On the other hand, human reasoning processes
are often unpredictable, in the sense that sometimes a inference process "jumps"
in an unanticipated direction.
Example: Have you ever waited for "inspiration" for your writing assignment?
-
In traditional reasoning systems, how a conclusion is derived is accurately
explainable. On the contrary, human mind often generate conclusions whose source
cannot be backtracked.
Example: Have you ever said "I don't know why I believe that. It's just my intuition."?
-
In traditional reasoning systems, every inference process has a pre-specified
goal, and the process terminatable whenever its goal is achieved. However, though
human reasoning processes are also guided by various goals, they often cannot
be completely achieved.
Example: Have you ever tried to find the goal of your life? When can you stop
thinking about it?
2. Non-deductive inference
All the inference rules of traditional logic are deduction rules,
where the truth of the premises guarantee the truth of the conclusion.
In a sense, in deduction the information in a conclusion is already in the premises,
and the inference rules just reveal what is previously implicit.
For example, from "Robins are birds" and "Birds have feather", it is valid to
derive "Robins have feather".
The problem is, in human reasoning, there are other inference patterns (or
rules), where the conclusions contain information not available in the premises.
Induction produces generalizations from special cases.
Example: from "Robins are birds" and "Robins have feather" to derive "Birds
have feather".
Abduction produces explanations for given cases.
Example: from "Birds have feather" and "Robins have feather" to derive "Robins
are birds".
Analogy produces similarity-based judgments.
Example: from "Swallows are similar to robins" and "Robins have feather" to derive
"Swallows have feather".
The above non-deductive rules do not guarantee the truth of the conclusion even
when the truth of the premises can be supposed. Therefore, they are not
valid rules in traditional logic. On the other hand, it is easy to see that
these kinds of inference often happen in everyday thinking, and, especially,
they play important roles in learning and creative thinking. If they are
not valid according to traditional theories, then in what sense they are better
than arbitrary guesses?
3. Various paradoxes
Traditional logic, when used outside mathematics, generate conclusions that are
different from what people usually do.
Sorites paradox:
No one grain of wheat can be identified as making the difference between being
a heap and not being a heap. Given then that one grain of wheat does not make a
heap, it would seem to follow that two do not, thus three do not, and so on. In
the end it would appear that no amount of wheat can make a heap.
Implication paradox:
Traditional logic uses "P → Q" to represent "If P, then Q". By definition,
the implication proposition is true if P is false or if Q is true, but "If 1+1 = 3,
then the Moon is made of cheese" and "If life exists on Mars, then robins have feather"
don't sound right.
Confirmation paradox:
In traditional logic, "Ravens are black" and "Non-black things are not
Ravens" are equivalent, that is, they have the same truth value.
If we want to extend truth value beyond merely true and false, and allow
the system to learn the truth value of a statement gradually according
to available evidence, then it is natural to take "black ravens" as positive
evidence for "Ravens are black". For similar reasons, "non-black
non-ravens" should be used as "Non-black things are not Ravens". But since
the two statements are equivalent, "non-black non-ravens" (such as white
sacks and red flowers) are also positive evidence for "Ravens are black".
Wason's selection task:
A psychological experiment shows that human judgment is systematically different
from the conclusion produced by traditional logic. Suppose that I show you four
cards, showing A, B, 4, and 7, respectively. Suppose in addition that I give
you the following rule to test: "If a card has a vowel on one side, then
it has an even number on the other side." Which card or cards should you
turn over in order to decide the truth value of the rule? On this task, few
people do what first-order predicate logic tells us to do.